Gold is at $4,535 per ounce on Monday June 1. The Iran war began on February 28. That is 95 days. In those 95 days, gold fell from its all-time high of $5,595 to a low near $4,380 before recovering to today’s level — a total peak-to-trough decline of approximately 21.7%, now recovered to a decline of approximately 18.9% from the peak. Every movement has been driven by a single mechanism: Hormuz closed → oil elevated → inflation rising → Fed hawkish → dollar strong → gold suppressed.
That mechanism is now, for the first time in 95 days, being formally dismantled.
The weekend ceasefire framework commits Iran to de-mining the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. When mines are removed, commercial shipping resumes. When commercial shipping resumes, oil supply normalises. When oil supply normalises, the energy component of inflation falls away. When energy inflation falls, the Fed’s hawkish posture softens. When the Fed softens, the dollar weakens. When the dollar weakens, gold climbs. The entire 95-day chain runs in reverse.
But this week also adds a new layer to the story that matters deeply for gold’s long-term direction: former Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks today in his first public address since being replaced by Kevin Warsh. And CBS News reported last week that experts are almost unanimous in forecasting gold between $5,400 and $6,000 by the end of 2026 — specifically because the structural forces that drove gold’s rise have not changed, only been temporarily obscured by the Hormuz-oil-inflation dynamic.
The structural forces: central banks buying at record rates. Mine supply growing at just 1–2% per year. Global debt at historic levels. The US sovereign credit downgraded by all three major agencies. Geopolitical fragmentation accelerating. These are 10-year forces. The Iran war is a 95-day distortion. The distortion is beginning to end. The tree was bending in the storm. The storm is beginning to pass.
