Gold opened Monday down $61 per ounce, touching $4,757, as optimism over a Strait of Hormuz ceasefire and a strengthening US dollar combined to shake short-term investors loose from their positions. On the surface the drop looks significant. Zoom out a single year and the picture is transformative: gold has climbed from roughly $3,275 in April 2025 to $4,757 today — a 45% rise that outpaced nearly every major asset class over the same period.
The mechanics of today’s fall are a near-textbook example of the paper gold market at work. When geopolitical risk eased over the weekend, institutional traders holding leveraged futures positions moved to reduce exposure. The dollar, which typically rises when immediate crisis risks diminish, added further downward pressure. None of this changes the physical supply-demand picture, which remains decisively tilted in gold’s favour.
Mine production remains one of gold’s most compelling structural arguments: global output is growing at just 1–2% per year. With more than 585 tonnes of quarterly demand from central banks and institutional investors alone, the supply side is consistently outpaced. Countries including Malaysia, South Korea, and Uzbekistan have resumed gold reserve accumulation after years of inactivity. China continues adding to its reserves monthly. These are not short-term trades — they are decade-long commitments.
J.P. Morgan forecasts gold will average $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026. Goldman Sachs holds a 2027 target of $6,000. The current $4,757 level sits 14.8% below January’s all-time record of $5,595 — well within a healthy bull-market correction range.
Today’s prices: 24K — $153.20/gram | 22K — $140.44/gram | 21K — $134.05/gram All prices indicative in USD. Subject to change without notice.
