There is a rhythm to gold in 2026 that patient observers are starting to recognise clearly. It goes like this: diplomacy sparks hope, the dollar firms, gold dips. Then the diplomacy stumbles, the gunboats come out, and gold climbs back. Yesterday was the hope. Today is the reality.
On Tuesday April 21, gold slid $41 to $4,763 as markets positioned for a potential US-Iran deal in Pakistan. By Wednesday morning, that hope was gone. Iran cancelled its participation in the Pakistan talks. Iranian IRGC-linked gunboats attacked a container vessel and two cargo ships in Gulf waters overnight. Iran confirmed it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while American naval vessels remain in the area. Gold is now back near $4,755, up roughly 1% from Tuesday’s low.
The longer story, though, is about what is coming next week. The Federal Reserve meets April 28–29 in what markets consider the most consequential FOMC session in months. The current federal funds rate sits at 3.50%–3.75% — unchanged since March — and is almost certain to stay there. The real question is what Jerome Powell says about the future. With oil near $90–$98 per barrel because of the Hormuz situation, inflation risks are elevated. A hawkish Powell would strengthen the dollar and create a temporary headwind for gold. A cautious, data-dependent Powell — the more likely scenario — would signal that cuts are still on the table, and gold would respond positively.
This Thursday brings US manufacturing and services PMI data, and Friday brings the University of Michigan inflation expectations survey. Together, this week’s data will shape market expectations heading into the April 29 decision. Gold near $4,755 — and 15% below its all-time high of $5,595 — is a market waiting for its next catalyst, and that catalyst arrives in seven days.
Today’s prices: 24K — $152.93/gram | 22K — $140.19/gram | 21K — $133.06/gram All prices indicative in USD. Subject to change without notice.
