For the past two months, the message from Tree Gold has been consistent: gold’s roots run deep, the storm is temporary, and the tree will stand when the weather clears. This Friday May 8, with gold trading near $4,739 and recovering sharply from its war-period lows, that message has been validated by the market itself.
The storm that battered gold since February — the Iran war, the Hormuz closure, oil above $106, inflation surging, the Fed forced to hold rates — did not break the structural foundation. It bent it. And this week, as the prospect of a peace deal between the US and Iran emerged clearly for the first time, the bend began to straighten. Oil fell below $100 a barrel. Inflation expectations eased. The Fed’s path — still cautious under new Chair Kevin Warsh who took over May 15 — opened a small crack of possibility for rate discussions later in 2026. Gold responded by climbing more than 3% in a single session on Wednesday.
The bigger story this week was the Q1 2026 global gold demand figure: a record high of 1,230.9 tonnes, up 2% year-on-year. This figure was released quietly amid all the geopolitical noise but it is the most important number of the month. It tells you that while traders were busy selling gold futures on inflation fears, the world’s central banks, jewellery consumers, and institutional investors were buying physical gold at the fastest pace in recorded history. The tree was growing underground even while the visible price was falling.
Today brings the April Nonfarm Payrolls report. The ISM manufacturing data this week showed employment falling to 46.4 — a 2026 low — while prices paid hit their highest level since April 2022. If the jobs report confirms that pattern across the whole economy, the stagflation story becomes undeniable, rate cuts become more likely, and gold’s recovery accelerates. The roots are deep. The sun is breaking through.
